Emergency Preparedness and Incident Response Planning

Food Shortage; 06-08-2024
In January 2024 Everstream, an analytics firm, list agricultural commodity shortages as one of the top supply chain risks in 2024 due to 2023 production halts during what was a turbulent year for crops. Although there are no nationwide food shortages as of June 2024, inventories in some grocery stores temporarily gets low before stores can restock.

While this situation is better that the state of food shortages in 2023 where hunger hotspots were designated by the World Food Programme (WFP) from the Central American Dry Corridor and Haiti, through the Sahel, Central African Republic, South Sudan and then eastwards to the Horn of Africa, Syria, Yemen and all the way to Afghanistan, conflict and climate shocks are driving millions of people to the brink of starvation.

Last year, the world rallied resources of a record-breaking $14.1 billion for WFP alone to tackle the unprecedented global food crisis. Countries like Somalia, had been teetering on the brink of famine, but the international community came together and managed the situation. However, the WFP advises we need to go further, and this can only be achieved by addressing the underlying causes of hunger.

For more information, go to the WFP website at: A global food crisis | World Food Programme (wfp.org).

Currently, only 40% of Africa’s population benefits from early warning systems, which heightens the socio-economic impacts of climate change, including floods, droughts, cyclones, storms, and heatwaves. Last year, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), supported by various UN agencies, launched the Africa Action Plan on Early Warnings for All. This initiative aligns with global United Nations objectives and aims to ensure all segments of African society, especially the most vulnerable, receive timely and accurate hazard information. It prioritizes integrating climate resilience into development strategies, supporting Agenda 2063 and the Sustainable Development Goals. This underscores the urgent and global nature of emergency preparedness in Africa, necessitating immediate and concerted action and engagement. For more information, please visit: https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/early-warnings-all-action-plan-africa-launched

Addressing Supply Chain Key Risks: 07-23-2024

It’s evident that while the situation has improved from the severe shortages seen in 2023, there are ongoing challenges exacerbated by conflicts and climate shocks that continue to threaten food security.
In recent years, the global focus on supply chain resilience has intensified, particularly underscored by vulnerabilities exposed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Organizations worldwide are increasingly prioritizing robust supply chain strategies to mitigate risks effectively, as highlighted by the top 10 supply chain risks influencing operations today.

Geopolitical uncertainty remains a top concern, impacting energy and raw material supply chains significantly. Economic volatility and inflationary pressures further amplify costs across various sectors, underscoring the importance of leveraging cloud-based solutions for real-time analytics and forecasting.

Climate-related disruptions, including extreme weather events, continue to pose significant challenges, necessitating enhanced visibility and sustainable practices across supply chains. Regulatory compliance with evolving ESG mandates also requires stringent frameworks and advanced sustainability solutions to mitigate operational risks.

The global response in 2023, which saw record-breaking resources mobilized for WFP and targeted efforts in vulnerable regions like Somalia, exemplifies the international community’s capacity to address acute food crises. However, as noted by WFP, addressing the underlying causes of hunger remains paramount for sustainable solutions.

Moving forward, it is crucial for us to continue supporting initiatives that strengthen food security, build resilience in vulnerable communities, and integrate sustainable practices into supply chain management. By prioritizing agility, transparency, and sustainability, we can collectively work towards achieving lasting solutions to global food security challenges.

Leveraging Digital Twins can Increase Farming Successes

There is an opportunity to leverage the research, “Digital Platforms for Agriculture in Africa that Create New Opportunities.” It’s all about how Digital Twin (DT) technology is transforming farming practices. It strikes me that DT could be a valuable tool for Burundi farmers. DT allows farmers to create virtual models of real-world farming scenarios, helping to optimize decisions on everything from crop management to resource allocation.

DT isn’t just a buzzword—it’s like creating a virtual clone of real-world farming systems in a digital space. This technology simulates, models, and analyzes data to make smarter decisions. From aerospace to healthcare, DT has been a game-changer, and now it’s revolutionizing agriculture too.

In farming, DT blends high-tech stuff like IoT, remote sensing using drones and satellites, GIS, big data analytics, and AI. These tools are helping farmers move from one-size-fits-all approaches to pinpoint management of fields based on factors like soil health, moisture levels, and plant conditions. Imagine being able to apply exactly the right amount of water, fertilizer, or pesticides exactly where they’re needed, at the right time. That’s the power of integrating geospatial data with agricultural insights. DT could potentially benefit the local farmers in Burundi, and we must look into specific challenges or opportunities that should be pursued.

For more on this topic see “How Digital Twins Will Help Agriculture Sector in Africa Manage Supply Chains. [Link to DT Paper]

Dr. Anna Farberova
22-July-2024

How Digital Twin Will Help Agricultural Sector in Africa Manage Supply Chains

Digital twin technology represents a significant step forward in how industries optimize their operations through digital means. Its application is of particular relevance in agro-industrial complexes, in which a network of enterprises engaged in raw materials, semi-finished products and finished products is involved.

In agricultural holdings, supply chains are complex systems that start with the purchase and distribution of spare parts for repair crews to ensure the smooth operation of field equipment and end with the sale of final products. These supply chains face challenges related to internal conflicts, leading to decisions that increase costs associated with storage, transportation, returns, and labor.

One of the main obstacles in agricultural supply chains is the gap between data and processes, which leads to inefficiencies among network participants at the local and global levels. More serious shortcomings include insufficient coordination of supply plans and deliveries along the main routes, as well as a mismatch in inventory levels within the same holding. At a lower level, issues such as manual fleet management and coordination of loading/unloading operations contribute to downtime and financial losses for vehicles.

Digital platforms play a key role in improving the operational efficiency of agricultural holdings through the orchestration and optimization of processes. These platforms help mitigate conflicts of interest and uncertainties arising from production constraints, inventory constraints, and logistical needs such as maintaining temperature-sensitive products.

Digital twin technology plays a critical role in reducing uncertainty in agricultural supply chains by:
• Ensure that the physical state of the supply chain matches its digital representation.
• Facilitate comprehensive information sharing between supply chain participants to improve traceability, redeployment control, and cost management.
• Integrated planning of sales, purchases, transfers and production schedules.
• Implementation of monitoring and control systems to eliminate deviations and violations from planned values.
• Use predictive analytics to model the behavior of the logistics network based on various data sets, which allows you to optimize operational efficiency.

Structural divisions and individual enterprises within agricultural holdings often face non-standardized accounting methods, which complicates the creation of an effective information architecture. This diversity of information structures hinders real-time dispatching, data access, and consolidated reporting, ultimately hindering centralized management and integrated supply chain planning.
Agri services platforms in developing countries face unique challenges, such as uncompetitive value chains, information constraints, and partnership risks. Unlike urban platforms, which quickly enter the market, agri-services platforms usually take longer, about three years, due to these complexities. Future sustainability depends on factors beyond the use and coordination of partners, including platform costs and market perception.

Direct engagement with farmers can be critical for both early deployment and a significant cost center for platforms. Rural digital platforms often require costly face-to-face interactions with local consultants for onboarding, training, and marketing. Logistics costs in Africa, some of the highest in the world, exacerbate operational challenges. However, as farmers become more accustomed to technology, there is potential to create low-engagement virtual markets where farmers and buyers interact without active face-to-face involvement.

While urban digital finance is successfully scaling, concerns remain about the transparency of interest rates, fees, and data privacy. Agri-services platforms can learn from these experiences, especially in the areas of consumer protection and trust building. Loans tied to suppliers or buyers of factors of production reduce the risks of excessive borrowing compared to general-purpose urban finance platforms.

In conclusion, we can say that the Digital Twin technology enables agricultural enterprises to develop technologically. By strategically implementing digital copies, agricultural holdings reduce risks, optimize operations, and steadily increase competitiveness. This transformative approach supports growth and sustainability across all agricultural supply chains, driving broader industry progress in digital innovation and operational efficiency. Looking to the future, agriservices platforms should focus on growing their user base and maintaining engagement, while exploring new revenue models and multi-service offerings to maximize impact, scale, and sustainability.

Link to the article: Digital-Platforms-for-Agriculture-in-Africa-create-New-Opportunities-for-Access-to-Finance.pdf (agra.org).

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As discussed in our last meeting, please review the Emergency Preparedness Framework from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) – https://www.fema.gov/emergency-managers/national-preparedness/frameworks

The following link also includes the framework for categories such as:
National Prevention Framework
National Mitigation Framework
National Disaster Recovery Framework
National Protection Framework
National Response Framework

National Prevention Framework – Executive Summary – provides guidance to prevent imminent terrorist threats or attacks within the United States. This framework, however, can be applied to any governing body, territory, or sovereign nation.

Here are the major takeaways:
1. Whole Community Involvement: The framework emphasizes the involvement of the entire community, including individuals, community organizations, private and nonprofit sectors, and all levels of government (local, regional/metropolitan, state, tribal, territorial, and federal) in preventing terrorism. Everyone has a role in creating a secure and resilient nation.

2. Core Capabilities for Prevention: There are seven core capabilities necessary for preventing an imminent terrorist attack:
– Planning: Developing plans to prevent attacks.
– Public Information and Warning: Communicating with the public about threats and preventive measures.
– Operational Coordination: Ensuring effective collaboration across all stakeholders.
– Forensics and Attribution: Investigating and identifying the sources of threats.
– Intelligence and Information Sharing: Effectively collecting, analyzing, and disseminating intelligence.
– Interdiction and Disruption: Preventing or disrupting threats before they can occur.
– Screening, Search, and Detection: Identifying and preventing threats through security measures.

3. Guiding Principles:
– Engaged Partnerships: Encourages collaboration among law enforcement, intelligence agencies, homeland security professionals, and community partners to enhance prevention efforts.
– Scalability, Flexibility, and Adaptability: The framework is designed to be scalable to different threat levels, flexible to adapt to changing situations, and adaptable to the needs of various jurisdictions and stakeholders.
– Readiness to Act: Stresses the importance of being prepared to respond quickly and effectively to intelligence about imminent threats.

4. Coordinating Structures: The framework outlines national and field-level coordinating structures that support prevention efforts, such as the Department of Homeland Security’s National Operations Center, FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Forces, state and major urban area fusion centers, and various intelligence centers. These structures facilitate problem-solving, improve resource access, and enhance coordination and information sharing.

5. Shared Responsibility: Prevention is a shared responsibility that spans individuals, local communities, and the federal government. Effective prevention requires collaboration across multiple sectors and disciplines, leveraging unique capabilities and resources.

6. Building a Culture of Preparedness: The framework calls for a culture of preparedness, encouraging all partners to understand the broader strategic implications and to make informed decisions that build future capacity and capability.

7. Dynamic Environment: Recognizes the complexity and unpredictability of the threat environment, emphasizing the need for continual adaptation and improvement of prevention strategies and capabilities.

Overall, the National Prevention Framework seeks to create a coordinated, all-encompassing approach to preventing terrorism by fostering partnerships, enhancing capabilities, and promoting readiness across the entire community.

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